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Help Me Pick my ONE Keeper for 2014.......WHIR

TomEmanskiAllStarsTomEmanskiAllStars Posts: 18Member

12 team H2H, non-ppr, standard scoring except 6pt passing TDs.

Help me pick my one and only keeper. Keepers can only be kept 3 years. Keepers will be taken at at their previous draft position, unless drafted after 10th round will be defaulted to 10th round selections. FA/WW pickup keepers will considered 10th round picks.

I have the 7th pick in the draft. Snake draft

QB: T.Brady (4th round) RB: Adrian Peterson (1st round) RB: Alfred Morris (10th round) - previous keepers, 2 years left on contract WR: Wes Welker (5th round) WR: Victor Cruz (3rd Round) TE: Jason Witten (4th round) DEF: K:

Bench: QB: J. Cutler (FA) RB: Arian Foster (FA) RB: Toby Gerhart (FA) RB: Andre Brown (FA) WR: Keenan Allen (FA) WR: Steve Smith, Sr (FA) TE: Antonio Gates (12th round)

Here's my 2 most likely options: Arian Foster (10th round) or Adrian Peterson (1st Round). I could also go Brady in the 4th.

The by 7th overall pick the top tier RBs may be tough to come by. If I Keep Foster I can get top tier WR/TE in the first.

Thoughts? Leave a link

2013 Roster.JPG
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Comments

  • BlueBlue Posts: 657Member ✭✭

    I like Foster, couldn't be a safe bet in your FA spot

  • TomEmanskiAllStarsTomEmanskiAllStars Posts: 18Member

    I'm just concern with obriens offense. Is Foster worth passing on AP

  • indibuckindibuck Posts: 8Member, Moderator mod

    You can't go wrong either way. But I prefer the value you are getting with Foster.

  • Texas_Two_StepTexas_Two_Step Posts: 406Member, Expert Writers ✭✭

    I would take Foster as well. Getting him in the 10th, when he normally goes in the 2nd or 3rd is a great value.

  • TomEmanskiAllStarsTomEmanskiAllStars Posts: 18Member

    3 votes for foster. Anybody for AP??

  • indeedindeed Posts: 818Member ✭✭

    My original thought was Foster but then I thought this could be a multi year keeper. Not only does Foster scare the crap out of me this year, but I just don't see any value for him next year even as a 10th rounder. AP on the other hand might have another season as an early first round pick in 2015. His run of dominance will end at some point but he might still be a top pick if not the top pick in a standard league next season. As a side bonus, I don't think it is unthinkable that he plays for someone other than MIN in 2015. He has a huge cap figure and could be moved to a contender looking for that final piece. Could you imaging AP on NE next year? Ridley and Vereen are both FA. It's certainly a long shot, but holy crap that would be awesome. Remember when NE brought in Dillon a few years back? Maybe Ball stinks it up in DEN this year and Manning pitches to bring in AP as a last shot to win a title. Holy crap! I'm just saying it could happen. Go with the sure thing. At 7th overall in a keeper league your first round pick is likely to be a WR or a reach RB. Take the sure thing. AP.

  • TomEmanskiAllStarsTomEmanskiAllStars Posts: 18Member

    I tend to lean with indeed. There is a 3 year keeper contract. The only counter argument I can give is foster pans out. He would be a steal and I would have a top wr/te too.

    Keepers haven't been declared. But I imagine. McCoy. JCharles. Are keepers.

  • murphysxmmurphysxm Posts: 162Member, Moderator mod

    Keenan Allen has to be on the table as well. WR's have a tendency to stay great longer...

  • indeedindeed Posts: 818Member ✭✭

    It's a really tough call. If Foster pans out you will be kicking yourself. If he gets hurt and you kept him you will be kicking yourself. Which is more likely to happen? Your first round pick will be more like a mid to late 2nd round pick assuming a lot of big guns are kept. Keep that in mind. I'm glad I don't have to make that call. Go with your gut. It sounds like 95% of you wants to go with Foster. Do it and feel good about it.

  • ironcityboy88ironcityboy88 Posts: 53Member

    Devil's Advocate...but what about Alfred Morris (10th Round)? He is a yardage machine and it's a NON-PPR league? He doesn't have the injury concern that Foster has and is on a much (well not much) better team that will play against the Eagles, Cowboys, and Giants defenses for six of his games. I'm not a big fan of Foster (since he hates fantasy players) so I would go Morris. In Non-PPR leagues they are going around the same place (2nd round or so).

  • RedsHawksRedsHawks Posts: 3Member

    I see your choices as between Morris, Foster, Gerhart, Allen as 10th rounders. Yes, it's a 3-year contract and this may be Foster's last run at fantasy relevance, but I'd much rather roll the dice on a 10th round pick than limit my options in the 1st round by keeping AP. Nothing says you can't decline the remaining 2 years on Foster's (or any keeper's) contract if it doesn't pan out. Basically, I like to look at keeper value as what might happen if the keeper turns into a bust - say, if AP blows out his knee again, I'd rather have a 10-round pick crap out than a 1st round pick. Personally, I'd go with Morris, Allen, Foster, Gerhart, AP in that order.

  • ProfessorLonghairProfessorLonghair Posts: 5Member

    I guess I would say AP, just because he is more machine than man and I see him having a good year and still being a viable pick next year. Value-wise though Morris and Foster could do you wonders using a 10th pick for them. I think all three are solid picks.

  • srlarsonsrlarson Posts: 65Member

    no way would I consider Foster....at any level......here are my thoughts: AP - going for the value...picking 7th you will never get him....so his value is getting him and having a #1 back....solid choice

    Morris - 10th Round - solid RB2 with the 10th round....great value

    K allen - 10th round - WR 2 in the 10th round....again great value.....

    So to me you have to weigh the ability to have a top flight player (AP, vs the valueof the others.)

    My choice is go with the talent....take AP and ride the horse till it bucks you off!!

    Good Luck!!

  • sf2313sf2313 Posts: 11Member

    Depends on how you feel about Foster. I personally loathe Foster in fantasy, so I would bite the bullet and take the safer option in AP regardless of the perceived drop in value.

    http://fantasyfootballcafe.com/discussion/559/upgrading-at-rb-trading-for-lacy-whir#latest

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