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Keeper Question

Need advice .. i'm in a 15 team Head to Head PPR league that can keep 1 keeper. I pick 4th in a snake draft, should i keep lacy in the 2nd round (pick 27) or harvin in the 9th round (pick 124)

Comments

  • maddog36maddog36 Posts: 100Member

    Harvin for sure great value. You can probably get a better feature back with your first pick I think.

  • Lyons91Lyons91 Posts: 54Member

    I would keep Lacy. Unless you think you could get a better pick in the second round.

    Harvin you got really late, that's good. I too have the dilemma of keeping Harvin in a auction league. Going back and forth on it.

    I'd say Lacy all day.

  • indeedindeed Posts: 862Member ✭✭

    I agree with Lyons91 Lacy all day long. Lacy late second round of a 15 team league is great value. Percy is also a nice value keeper, but locking up a potential top 5 pick late in the second is much better.

  • rjwhiterjwhite Posts: 35Member, Expert Writers
    edited August 2014

    I'd have to keep Lacy. Harvin in the ninth seems like a better value pick on the surface, but I believe that player values plot out on a graph closer to the 1/x curve than they do a straight line (see image).

    Note: Don't use the exact image or the exact data below as indicative of exact fantasy values. Just using this particular curve as an example of my thoughts on the value of elite players.

    Using that diagram, I'd compare getting Lacy at pick 27 to using a pick that falls at about .16 on the x-axis (which equals about .35 y) to get a player worth about .75 y (near the far left of the curve). Harvin would be getting a guy valued at .15-.2 y by using a pick that falls at about .8 on the x-axis (which equals about .02 y). Using Lacy as a keeper banks about .4 y in value in this instance, while using it on Harvin may bank around .15 y in value.

    Even though using a ninth-round pick on a fifth-round talent seems like it may be the bigger value if you think linearly, to me it's actually using a late-second pick on a mid-first talent that clearly comes out ahead if you believe in the curved value of talent.

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